GTPCNZ

Model, dashboard, and Substack reading path

GTPCNZ is a public-facing reporting layer for the primary care funding architecture model. It translates the model into a readable website, reproducible Quarto report, Hugging Face Dash model lab, and Streamlit compatibility surface that focuses on the modelling and dashboard views, then links to the Substack posts.

Hugging Face interactive lab: https://edithatogo-gtpcnz-dashboard.hf.space/

Streamlit compatibility dashboard: https://gtpcnz.streamlit.app/

Substack series: https://rareinsights.substack.com/

This is a public-data anchored benchmark and educational explainer. It is not linked-data calibrated and not a patient-level forecast. It should not be used to claim precise fiscal savings, hospital-demand reductions, workforce effects, or implementation impacts.

Aggregate validation status: public_aggregate_validated for registered public aggregate validation gates only. This does not expand the model into precise fiscal, ED, hospital-demand, workforce, implementation-impact, or causal claims.

Visual reading map

Public surfaces

Surface Status Purpose
Public report Model-generated index Argument map and thesis, Current reform pathway, Scenario rank chart
Hugging Face Dash lab Educational explainer Dynamic educational explainer and live model lab
Streamlit dashboard Compatibility surface Legacy dynamic educational explainer and live model lab during migration
Model card and tracker Public aggregate validation, claim-gated Generated release model card, evidence tracker and claim-boundary controls
Calibration readiness page Calibration readiness Data gaps and validation pathway
Site map and release manifest Canonical index Public site inventory and release rules

How the posts map to this report and dashboard

Post Substack page Dashboard / report companion
01 Are we buying hospital growth by rationing cheaper care upstream? Start here; current state; reference scenarios
02 Fee-for-service, capitation and blended funding Funding model explainer; educational slider controls
03 Marginal supply Microeconomics lab; marginal supply simulation
04 Why formulas do not solve games Game theory lab; gaming-risk frontier
05 Current reform pathway Current state; F0/current reform comparator
06 What I mean by uncapping primary care funding Scheduled-payment controls; microeconomics lab
07 Hospital salience and allocation game Hospital pressure and allocation salience explanation
08 Capitation marginal-supply and consumer access game Marginal supply and access-pressure simulation
09 Primary Health Organisations, payment friction and cherry-picking Place accountability and gaming-risk frontier
10 ACC, ambulance and urgent care Boundary/pathway stress explanation
11 Who should generate primary care supply? Scope capacity and educational controls
12 Telehealth as extender Local supply and digital extender explanation
13 Co-payments Co-payment barrier and equity-protection module
14 The 19 games Game map navigator and model gap map
15 The hybrid game Scenario profile and hybrid viability decomposition
16 Composite modelling Live model lab; uncertainty and model gap map
17 Game-informed MCDA Value of information and decision-support explanation
18 Recommendations Recommendation stack and release model card

First six launch posts

    1. Are we buying hospital growth by rationing cheaper care upstream?
    1. Fee-for-service, capitation and blended funding
    1. Marginal supply
    1. Why formulas do not solve games
    1. Current reform pathway
    1. What I mean by uncapping primary care funding

Visual modules

  • Argument map and thesis
  • Current reform pathway
  • Scenario rank chart
  • Evidence tracker
  • Calibration readiness
  • Site map and release manifest
  • First six launch posts
  • Game-theory extension
  • Later game-theory modules

Status labels used across the public surface: Conceptual, Educational explainer, Model-generated index, Evidence readiness, Calibration readiness, Public aggregate validation.

Uncapped does not mean uncontrolled; it means scheduled, rules-based, audited, clinically governed and place-accountable.

Current Status

This is a public-data anchored benchmark and educational explainer. It is not linked-data calibrated and not a patient-level forecast. It should not be used to claim precise fiscal savings, hospital-demand reductions, workforce effects, or implementation impacts.

The current release model card reports public_aggregate_validated / empirically_supported_if_gated after CAL-G-001 through CAL-G-007 passed. The not-valid-for boundary remains unchanged for precise fiscal savings, ED reductions, hospital-demand reductions, workforce effects, implementation impacts, and causal effects.

Local Commands

Render the website:

quarto render

Run the Dash model lab:

pixi run dash

Run the Streamlit compatibility dashboard:

streamlit run models/primarycare_model/app.py